Tesla sales are rising in China thanks to the automaker's incentives on top of government incentives that expire at the end of the year.
Is it enough to save Tesla's quarter and full year?
Tesla aims to deliver a record number of more than 515,000 vehicles in Q4 so that its sales are not down for the whole year. That's ~30,000 more cars than Tesla's last quarter, which was Q4 2023.
China is Tesla's most important market and the most important EV market in the world.
In many ways, the Chinese could make or break Tesla's goal of record quarterly deliveries.
The latest insurance data is from November, and it indicates that Tesla is delivering just short of 70,000 cars – which is increasing year on year (via Car News China):
However, while Tesla's domestic sales are up in the Chinese market, Tesla's wholesale from China (all cars built in the domestic market and exports) fell in November.
The country's results are expected to be stronger in December due to the existing incentives.
Tesla recently introduced a new ¥10,000, equivalent to $1,380 USD, discount on the Model Y, its most popular car, if buyers take delivery by the end of December.
It's the first time Tesla has discounted cars in China, but the automaker has been offering 0% interest loans to boost sales for most of the year.
In addition, China has a ¥20,000 yuan ($2,700 USD) cash incentive for clunkers for people who trade in their old, high-emission cars for an electric car. This incentive ends next year, prompting EV sales at the end of this year.
Electrek's Take
Things are going well for Tesla in China. With this push in November and all the incentives in place in December, it could be a record quarter for Tesla.
However, the question is whether it will be enough to combat the decline in European sales and include the ~ ~ 30,000 additional cars that Tesla needs to deliver to achieve its goal.
I think China should cover one of those issues, but not both. North America, which is too opaque to follow, will have to cover the rest.
Tesla has a track record of lobbying in the US and Canada to address this. I think there is a real picture in delivering 515,000 cars in a quarter.
But at what cost, with all these incentives, and what does it mean for Tesla in 2025? I think that's a problem later.
FTC: We use auto affiliate links to earn income. More.
