Renewables could meet nearly half of global electricity demand by 2030 – IEA

With solar leading the way, renewables could meet nearly half of global electricity demand by the end of this decade, says a new IEA report.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its “Renewables 2024” report, which estimates that by the end of this decade, the capacity of renewable energy worldwide is expected to increase by more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW).

To put that in perspective, that's about as much energy as the current combined total of China, the EU, India, and the US.

From 2024 to 2030, new renewable installations are expected to triple what we saw between 2017 and 2023. China is leading the way and will be responsible for nearly 60 percent of all new renewables added during that period, meaning it will account for nearly half of the world's renewable energy capacity by 2030. Meanwhile, India is seeing the fastest growth among major economies.

Solar is a major driver of this surge, with solar PV expected to make up 80% of new renewable energy. This is due to the continued construction of large solar power plants and rooftop solar installations installed by homeowners and businesses. Wind is also set for a strong rebound, doubling its growth rate between now and 2030 compared to seven years ago. Currently, wind and solar are the cheapest ways to generate new electricity in almost every country.

This rapid growth means that nearly 70 countries – representing 80% of global renewable energy – are on track to meet or exceed their current 2030 renewable energy targets. Although the world is set to add a staggering amount of renewable capacity by 2030, we may still fall short of the goal set at COP28 to triple capacity by then. But the IEA says meeting this goal is possible if governments make bold commitments, improve international cooperation, and face high financial costs, especially in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stressed that renewables are expanding faster than most governments can set new targets. He emphasized that it's not just about emissions reduction or electricity security – it's because renewables are the cheapest way to generate new electricity in many countries. “By 2030, we expect that renewables will be meeting half of the world's electricity demand,” said Birol.

The IEA report warns, however, that governments will need to step up efforts to integrate solar and wind into electricity grids. Some countries are seeing renewable electricity generation decrease – or not be used – by rates of up to 10%. To fix this, countries will need to improve the flexibility of the energy system, streamline permitting processes, and build or modernize electricity grids and reach 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030.

The report also looks at renewable generation, particularly solar. Global solar production capacity is expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, far exceeding demand. This oversupply, mainly from China, has driven down solar module prices but also put financial pressure on manufacturers. Meanwhile, solar power generation capacity is expected to triple in India and the US by 2030, helping to diversify the global supply chain – although costs remain very high outside of China.

The biggest takeaway? Renewables are expanding faster than many expected, thanks to supportive policies and improving economies. But to fully exploit solar, wind, and other renewable energy technologies, governments will need to work together to overcome the financial and infrastructure challenges that stand in the way.

Dave Jones, director of independent energy agency Ember, said: “Policymakers are embracing solar and wind more than ever, but they are two steps behind the reality of the world. The market can deliver renewables, and now governments need to prioritize investing in storage, grids, and other forms of clean energy to facilitate this transition. The next half decade is going to be quite the journey. “

Read more: Prices fall on residential solar, demand is high for battery storage – EnergySage