Tesla has revealed that it plans to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with more than 500,000 electric vehicles.
Here's how he plans to do it.
For years, Tesla is targeting a nearly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.
That growth slowed this year, and Tesla is now expected to deliver roughly the same number of vehicles in 2024 compared to last year.
Interestingly, the lull in growth prompted Tesla to share more accurate growth guidance for the first time.
Tesla shared that it plans to increase deliveries between 20 and 30% by 2025.
If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as it is targeting, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.
It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles by 2025.
Tesla has grown by an average of 30% in the past, but it has never done it when producing cars at such a high rate.
It will be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.
After a full year of production in 2024, the Cybertruck is expected to make significant contributions in 2025.
Tesla currently has a production capacity of around 125,000 units. That could be twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.
It remains to be seen whether Tesla can meet its demand, but the production ramp of the Cybertruck should contribute to Tesla's growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.
The real contributors are expected to be two new cars that Tesla plans to launch in the first half of 2025.
Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk canceled plans for Tesla's new, low-cost vehicles built on a new 'out of the box' platform, often referred to as the “$25,000 Tesla.”
He has instead two new car plans have been pushed that incorporate some of the features of the new platform, but are still primarily based on the Model 3/Y platform – so much so that they will be built on the same production lines.
The as-yet-unnamed new cars are expected to be cheaper than the Model 3/Y, which currently starts at $43,000 before incentives — possibly closer to $30,000-$35,000.
Those cars are expected to contribute significantly to Tesla's growth, but since they will launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.
When discussing the direction of growth, Musk pointed to “low-cost cars” as contributing to growth, but also said “the advent of autonomy” will have an impact:
We can't overcome major force majeure events, but I think that with our low-cost cars with the advent of autonomy, something like 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.
It sounds like you are saying that Tesla's Full Self-Driving development will help Tesla sell more cars.
We previously reported on Musk describing Tesla's plan to use unsupervised self-driving cars next year.
Electrek's Take
I've already shared at length my doubts about Tesla's ability to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don't think it's worth going into too much.
FSD will probably improve next year and may convince some people to buy Tesla cars, but I doubt it will be anything significant.
The cheaper new models are where the real opportunity is, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.
I think it's also important to think about cannibalism.
Many people think that because the new cars will be produced on the same production lines as the Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that is not the case. Tesla produces the Model S and X on the same line, and they are very different.
But even if they're very different, they're likely to steal sales of Tesla's low-end vehicles.
I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won't be easy.
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