Photo: Dominion Energy
Donald Trump will push back on fossil fuels and roll back renewable energy policies, but ultimately it won't stop the clean energy push.
Trump has been calling for more oil drilling and fewer regulations, has left the Paris Agreement during his first term as president, says he hates “windmills,” has promised to end offshore wind “on day one” if he wins the 2024 election, and called out climate change. replace “scam.” And now that he has won, this is a direct threat to the US commitment to reach net zero by 2050. After all, government policy directly affects the pace of renewable energy growth, especially when it comes to incentives and research funding.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of the Biden administration, which promoted the rise of clean energy, will be challenged under Trump. Because Republican states received 80% of the IRA money with which they built industries and created thousands of jobs, complete repeal of the IRA is impossible. What is more likely is that Republicans are releasing tax credits ahead of schedule or funding altogether.
Federal financial support for new technologies and projects may also be affected. Brendan Bell, COO of Aligned Climate Capital, who previously led the US Department of Energy's Office of Loan Programs, said. Electrek:
My colleague Peter and I led the DOE's Office of the Loan Program under President Obama. We've supported early scale solar and end-to-end projects, as well as early EV investments – including a first loan from Tesla.
Today, this technology is being commercialized and is driving the clean energy transition. None of this would have happened if these programs had been discontinued 10 years ago.
Simply put, Trump can't turn back the wave of clean energy — but he can delay tomorrow's solutions and the birth of new industries.
BloombergNEF's “2H 2024 US Clean Energy Market Outlook,” released at the end of October, explored a worst-case scenario, where control of both the Senate and the House leads to a complete repeal of the IRA tax credits:
The wind, solar, and co-energy sectors see a 17% drop in new value added over 2025-2035, with 927 gigawatts (GW) of combined construction compared to 1,118GW in BNEF's baseline forecast. Wind sees the biggest decline in activity in this scenario with a 35% drop, followed by energy storage at 15% and solar at 13% compared to the BNEF base case.
That's a price we can't afford at a time when we need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 to avoid climate disasters worse than they already are.
But all is not lost. The clean energy market is not only driven by government policy. Over the past decade, solar, wind, and EVs have become more competitive and popular. Federal policies also play a big role, and many states have committed to their clean energy goals regardless of who is in the White House. States like California, New York, and Washington have ambitious goals to combat climate change, and deep red Texas is number 1 in the US for both solar and wind.
Corporations are also important players. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Walmart have committed to being 100% renewable, and they haven't backed down. This demand keeps the market for renewables strong. In addition, there is significant public support for clean energy projects, and renewables create more jobs than fossil fuels in many regions of the country.
JD Dillon, chief marketing officer of California-based solar energy company Tigo Energy (Nasdaq: TYGO), said Electrek“The march towards clean renewable energy is inevitable and the right thing to do. In a perfect world, we could remove bias from the renewable energy debate because everyone benefits from clean and affordable energy. Unfortunately, none of us live in a perfect world. “
The US clean energy sector may be slowing down, but it's hard to stop a train that has already left the station. What effects this slow train will have on the US and the world remains to be seen.
Read more: Trump says he will end the EV mandate. The only problem: there isn't one.
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